New England has not lost at home in a long time.. November 2006 to be exact. They still have Brady and Moss and Belichick is still at the helm. So why is New England going to lose today?

Baltimore comes in with a 9-7 record and really with the old Defense that has made them the most feared team in the NFL. But what they have is the #3 Total defense in the NFL, #5 against the rush and #8 against the pass. They will load the box against the likes of Sammy Morris, Fred Taylor and Lawrence Maroney.  Maroney is just what Baltimore loves.. a guy who cant hold on to the ball, Taylor hasn’t played but in 5 games and Morris has been banged up. A nice Combo when healthy, but they will not be as effective because of a missing WR.

Losing Wes Welker, as much as NE wants to spin it as just a minor setback, will clamp down on Moss and while NE used to have the effective weopons at the 3-4 WR spot those days are over. Jabar Gaffney is gone.. he’s brutal, but he fit the system, Terry Glenn was let go mid season, and rookie, an ex-QB 7th round pick out of Kent St. , will be the slot man in a Playoff game. Dont forget that Sam Aikin is a 4th round pick in 2003 who couldn’t make it in Buffalo and Mathew Slater.. yes HOF Jackie Slater’s son, who was an 8th rounder in 2008 as a DB is also there.

Let’s not forget Tom Brady is still rehabbing the knee cus everyone knows that it is a year to get healthy to play and 2 years to get back to normal. Not to mention his broken ribs, and digits, and lately if you have had any old HS injuries and you live in the south where its been cold as hell.. you are hurting because of the cold. It will be in the high teens with a 15-20 mph wind..

I like the Offensive line and Ray Rice as well as the demeanor of Flacco. Harbaugh is a good coach and the last 2 times Baltimore played NE they had them by the cajones and as Denny Greene once said, “…we let ’em off the hook”.  The Ravens will run the ball with their NFL ranked #5 rush O and the overall #13 Offense.. Think of it this way.. Arizona is ranked behind them in Rushing and Overall O.

I am betting Baltimore to cover +4

We are now into the last weekend of the regular season of the NFL. Where did the year go?

Fantasy championships are over and all we have left is the most difficult week of wagering of the year. Why? Because we don’t know who is playing, how much they are going to play, or whose backups are better than the other team.  This is like week four of the preseason.

So with the best analysis I can muster here are my final regular season NFL pix for the year.

Colts @ Buffalo -7 O/U 32.5

We saw what the Colts are intending to do as we watched them pull the starters last week up 5 and with an undefeated season on the line. It is 10 degrees windy and snowing in Buffalo and the Colts backup QB is their third stringer. Sure he had the reps this week, but we don’t see Wayne, Clark or any other solid player getting any time in this one. Look for TO to end his career with the Bills on a high note as he auditions for another team to play for next year.

I am betting the Under 32.5

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New England @ Houston -7

This is a dome game and a one where although New England can become the 3rd seed and get a home playoff game I just don’t see Brady and others playing much if at all. Houston remains in playoff contention entering the last regular-season game for the first time in franchise history. The Texans are competing primarily with Denver, Baltimore and the New York Jets for one of the two AFC wild-card spots. To get in the Texans need a victory and two of those teams to lose Sunday. This is also Kubiak’s Alamo. Stranger things have happened on the final day.

I am betting Houston -7 to cover

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Steelers @ Miami +3.5

There is a possibility that Ricky Williams is not playing in this one. He will at least give it a go with a shot of cortisone and some maybe a spliff, but one for medicinal purposes only of course. If not look for Henne to pass for 400 yards and hope for some defensive stops to get a win and keep the Steelers out of the playoffs.

I am betting Miami +3.5 to cover

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NY Giants @ Minnesota -8

The Giants have totally given up. Brandon Jacobs and most of the defensive core are out and Bradshaw is running on 2 fractured feet. This is a statement game for the Vikes as they need some sort of momentum going into the playoffs not to mention they need a win to potentially get the #2 seed and a bye next week. Easy pickens here in the dome where Favre is always at home.

I am betting Vikings -8 to cover

This is the final week teams are on bye since the first week in October so we will have a full slate of games starting again next week. Last week I made you money for the first time in 3 weeks going 2-1 in the NFL, but as Vegas says you need to make your coin in college and watch the pros with a lil taste attached.

Miami -10 v Tampa Bay

This one the boyz in Vegas got totally wrong so don’t tell anyone or it goes to 12 in a hurry. You wont need to worry Miami will score and at will. Lets talk shall we? Tampa lost its last 11 before beating up a Green Bay team qho appeared to have given up. All the Bucs skill players are hurt and really they are not that good anyway. Miami is chomping at the bit for a big win and this week and the Wildcat goes off.

I am betting Miami at home -10 to cover

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Minnesota -16.5 v Detroit

Yes the big spreads lately have not covered, but I on the other hand usually bet against them well. C’mon, Minnesota is not what everybody thinks they are on D because they are only 18th overall in total D and 21st in passing. We are talking Detroit who they already beat, but barely covered by a hook in September winning by 14. Minny is coming off a bye I think Brett Fv-er-era will throw to a healthy TE Schiancoe, WR Berrian, WR Rice and don’t forget Adrian Peterson all day long. Stafford just threw 5 INT;s last game and isn’t healthy so this game is a wipeout.

I am betting Minnesota at home -16.5 to cover

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Jets -7 v Jacksonville

The J-E-T-S are coming off a bye week and I am sure after losing 4 of 5 they did not take too many days off. Jets are 4-4 and in need of a win so the bye has to help the Braylon/Sanchez connection plus it had to get a lot of guys healthy at the right time. The D of the New York Jets is fine and should do well against the Jags. Jericho Cotchery is now back so that opens the door for the great running game and play action which Sanchez grew up on at USC. MJD is nicked up and Torry Holt is 100 years old so the NYJ defense ranked #2 overall should do the trick.

I am betting the Jets at home to cover -7

After going 4-1 in college football yesterday we are going to try and get out of the NFL funk we have been in recently.

Atlanta -9.5 v Washington

Atlanta is struggling to find an identity and consistency while Washington is trying to just win a game. The Falcons are coming back home after getting beat the last 2 weeks in Dallas and on Monday night at New Orleans. The Falcons are banged up on both sides of the ball and are in a short week while Washington is coming off a bye.  We all know about Washington and the shenanigans going on there, but the Redskin D is not the issue. They are 2-5 and have lost by an average of 6 points which says they are in all the games.

I am betting Washington +9.5 on the road

Jacksonville -7 v KC Chiefs

Last time we saw KC they were at home getting manhandled by San Diego which we know means Whales Vagina.  Anyway, Jacksonville got beat up by the Titans last week for their first win of the year. Jacksonville has given up over 30+ pts per game in their losses and the wins aren’t that good either. KC is bad and if you count preseason are 1-10 for the year. They did pick up a definite need at WR by signing Chris Chambers from the waiver wire and he will help Duane Bowe get open plus with LJ benched for this game Jamal Charles and Kolbe Smith will carry the load.  The Jags will counter with MJD and Mike Sims-Walker but you never know what you get with Sims-Walker. Look for Cassell to throw against the bad pass defense of JVille and make this game a close one.

I am betting KC to cover +7 on the road

Houston +8 v Colts

The Colts defense is in a hospital ward as they have now lost Bob Sanders (only played 50% of games since 2004), Tyjuan Hagler, and Marlin Jackson for the year. This week Indy doesn’t have the services of Adam Vinatieri and Kelvin Hayden plus they may not have Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon or Donald Brown.  Houston did lose Owen Daniels last week for the year who has been a big part of the offense so they will need to rely on Kevin Walter, Andre Jackson and the 3 headed RB monster in Slaton, Moats and Brown. The Houston D had a rough start, particularly against the run, and allowed an NFL-worst 205 yards rushing a game in the first three games. They’ve turned it around since then, giving up about 58 yards a game through their last five.  Although the Colts have beaten the Texans 14-15 times and they have the MVP at the half way point in Peyton Manning they can’t play defense so the Colts will be upset in their own house. With a win they go 6-3 for the first time in their franchise history.

I am betting the Texans to cover +8 on the road.