This is the game where the underdog now is the team that is playing at home and with the MVP of the NFL. That’s right, the Colts are a wagering favorite, but are being treated as an underdog.

Forget the fact that the Jets beat the Colts in week 16. The Colts were winning when they took out the starters in the 3rd quarter after they had already garnered 17 first downs through a little more than half the game. Forget the fact that the Jets went into Cincy and San Diego and beat the home teams with their excellent defense.  Cincy was just a bad team who limped into the playoffs and San Diego just shot themselves in the foot. (literally due to missing 3 FGs and stupid penalties)

Now let’s go back to Jan 4th, 2003. The New York Jets beat the Colts 41-0 in the first round of the playoffs so if you don’t think that with what happened to Indy in week 16 and what happened 7 years ago isn’t in the back of Peyton Manning’s head then you are crazy.  The Colts were anticipating this game, although they were thinking they would be playing SD, but their prayers have been answered. Yes, the Jets are the Lady GaGa of the playoffs, but they will not get into the end zone.

Mark Sanchez has not been asked to make the plays yet and last time I checked the Indy defense is healthy and very good. Dwight Freeney, Rahim Brock, and Gary Brackett are still there and are ready to take away the run and make Sanchez beat them.

On the offensive side. The Jets could not stop Antonio Gates or Vincent Jackson and SD had 17 1st downs to the Jets 12 and this is with 10 penalties. SD who throughout the game continually were 3rd and long due (4-13 on 3rd down) to stupid penalties (4 penalties in first 4 possessions). They left themselves in a position that they could not run the offense which allowed them to score more than 20 pts in every game since the middle of November 2008.  Of course missing 2 chip shots would have given them 20 pts and a victory, but you can’t say what if. Considering what Gates and Jackson did what do you think Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne will do?

The Jets will not beat the Colts on 93 yards passing for a game and Peyton will shred the NY defense with a clock running, precise game plan.  I see this as a blowout. The spread is 7 1/2 and Vegas is begging you to take the Jets.

I am betting the Colts -7 1/2 to cover