I dont have a freaking clue about the game tonight. OK maybe I do.

I wouldn’t be a degenerate if I didnt at least have an opinion on who will cover in this Thursday night tilt. I guess the object is to pick the team I believe will win and since the spread is only NC -2.5 these 2 teams are without a doubt in the same position.

Allow me to elaborate. Combined they are 0-5 in the ACC. Florida State is 0-3 with losses to #8 Miami opening weekend, at BC and against #11 GeoTech last week all by a combined total of 16 points. This is the Noles 3rd road game of the year and since we know they lost at BC I’m sure you are wondering who else they played on the road. Try at BYU where they waxed the Cougs’ 54-28. Florida State is only losing by less than a TD average so they have been in their games.

On the other side of the coin we have the most overrated preseason top 25 team in college football.  NC knew they lost a lot of offense by losing savior Hakeem Nicks, who has scored the last 3 weeks for the NY Giants, along with other stars like Brandon Tate and Brooks Foster from the receiving corps. Other than scoring 40 against Citadel and 42 against Georgia Southern the Heels have scored a total of 53 points (13.5 avg) in their other 4 games of the season. Even more schocking is they have yet to go over 7 points in either of their 2 ACC games which includes a thumping by happless Virginia when they only scored 3 points at home! Never forget Viginia gave up 26 in a loss at home against Bill and Mary earlier this year.

So after all this ranting and raving here’s the bottom line.

Give Bobby Bowden 2 weeks to prepare especially after a 3 game losing streak during that whole booster BS in front of a national TV audience and I lean to Fla State. Although they average 426 yds/game they also give it up equally, but to better teams and I’m not sure the Heels are equal to BYU, Miami, GTech, and South Florida. I dont see Heels having a chance.

In a good game to watch..

I am betting Florida State to cover the +2.5 on the road

I just can’t wait any longer to tell you my picks because the Dodgers and Angels unfortunately have given me no reason to watch MLB. Here are my “Early 4” pix for Saturday.

Pitt -6.5 vs So Fla

This is one of the games I told you about in my Big East preseason review
which would be the one to watch. Of course I didnt know Matt Grothe
was not going to be playing becuase then it would have been a difficult choice.
Pitt is 6-1 coming off a trap game at Rutgers where Schiano usually finds
a way to beat Wannstedt, but not this time. Pitt runs for over 225 and So Fla
gives up 120 per game. Panthers go 7-1, which will mark their best start
since 1982 by a team quarterbacked by Dan Marino.

I am betting Pitt at home -6.5
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Michigan +4.5 vs Penn St

Penn State is a very weak 6-1. Their only tough game was at home against Iowa and they lost. They have played teams that are a combined 19-21 including Ill, E. Illinois, Akron, Temple and Syracuse. Illinois was the only game on the road. Michigan on the other hand did lose to Iowa and scored 28 pts, but it was on the road. Michigan has played a great schedule well and after scoring 63 last week I think they are pumped and I’m getting 4.5 at the Big House.

I am betting Michigan to cover +4.5 at home

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LSU -7 vs Auburn

This is the game where Les Miles introduces Gene Chizik to real SEC football.
Auburn has gotten crushed at Arkansas and lost at home to a lousy Kentucky team in the last 2 weeks.  Chizik has a poor playing QB and LSU has had 2 weeks to prepare after giving Florida all they wanted. LSU is at home and will crush the Tigers this week. Then LSU can rest the starters next week against Too-Lame and be ready to play at Alabama in 2 weeks fully healthy.

I am betting LSU to cover -7 at home

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Houston -16 v SMU

If it wasn’t for a tremendous brain fart at UTEP three weeks ago this would be 24 pts instead of 16 pts. Houston averages over 600 yards per game with 400+ in the air. SMU gives up 350+ total yards per game so this coudl get ugly. SMU played well against TCU in the annual grudge match until TCU won out and last week they gave Navy all they could handle, but I think there is trouble this week. Houston is coming home after 3 straight and 4 out of 5 road games including a win at Okie St with Dez Bryant and at Miss St with plus a home victory against a hot Texas Tech team. Never forget SMU lost to Wazzu, nuff said.

I am betting Houston to cover -16

It’s ‘Hump Day’ and that means CFA is on TV. I am providing you the trends for some of the biggest college games of the weekend. Picks from D2B will be forthcoming on Friday.

Pitt -6.5 vs South Fla

SOUTH FLORIDA
South Florida is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
South Florida is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Florida’s last 6 games on the road

PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

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Gtech -7 @ Virginia

GEORGIA TECH
Georgia Tech is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Georgia Tech is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Georgia Tech is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Georgia Tech is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Georgia Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Virginia
Georgia Tech is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Virginia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Tech’s last 5 games when playing Virginia
Georgia Tech is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Virginia
Georgia Tech is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Virginia

VIRGINIA
Virginia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Virginia is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Virginia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Virginia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Georgia Tech
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Georgia Tech
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia’s last 5 games when playing Georgia Tech
Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Georgia Tech
Virginia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Georgia Tech
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Oregon -10.5 @ Wash

OREGON
Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Oregon is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oregon is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon’s last 5 games on the road
Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon’s last 7 games when playing Washington

WASHINGTON
Washington is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games
Washington is 3-18 SU in its last 21 games
Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Washington is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington’s last 15 games at home
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oregon
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oregon
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington’s last 7 games when playing Oregon
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LSU -8 vs Auburn

AUBURN
Auburn is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Auburn’s last 7 games
Auburn is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Auburn is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Auburn is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Auburn’s last 8 games on the road
Auburn is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing LSU
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Auburn’s last 8 games when playing LSU
Auburn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LSU
Auburn is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LSU

LSU
LSU is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games
LSU is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LSU’s last 5 games
LSU is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
LSU is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LSU’s last 5 games at home
LSU is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Auburn
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LSU’s last 8 games when playing Auburn
LSU is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Auburn
LSU is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Auburn
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USC -21 vs Oregon State

OREGON STATE
Oregon State is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oregon State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oregon State’s last 5 games on the road
Oregon State is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Southern Cal
Oregon State is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Southern Cal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon State’s last 7 games when playing Southern Cal
Oregon State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Southern Cal
Oregon State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Southern Cal

SOUTHERN CAL
Southern Cal is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Southern Cal is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Cal’s last 5 games
Southern Cal is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games at home
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Southern Cal’s last 23 games at home
Southern Cal is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oregon State
Southern Cal is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Oregon State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Cal’s last 7 games when playing Oregon State
Southern Cal is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oregon State
Southern Cal is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oregon State
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TCU -3 @ BYU

TCU
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TCU is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of TCU’s last 5 games on the road
TCU is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing BYU

BYU
BYU is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
BYU is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of BYU’s last 6 games
BYU is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
BYU is 21-1 SU in its last 22 games at home
BYU is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing TCU

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Iowa -1 @ Mich St

IOWA
Iowa is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Iowa is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Iowa’s last 16 games on the road
Iowa is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Michigan State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa’s last 6 games when playing Michigan State
Iowa is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Michigan State

MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan State is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Michigan State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Michigan State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Iowa
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Michigan State’s last 6 games when playing Iowa
Michigan State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Iowa
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This is a Friday Nights Dream Play
Louisiana Tech at Nevada (-10.5) – Believe it or not this line opened at -6 and is now up to -10 1/2 so you do the math.
I am sure degenerates caught a glimpse of what Nevada is capable of doing during their total demolition of UNLV 63-28 last week in Vegas while running for 559 yards and generating 773 yards of offense even after losing 4 fumbles.
No BS on those stats so that is a crushing like you have never seen. When Nevada is on, they can score.

Nevada had 3 guys rush for more than 170 yards last week. There is no way Louisiana Tech with the 82nd ranked defense will stop them. La Tech gives up 186 yards per game on the ground allowing 4.23 yards per rush and lets teams convert 43% of their third down conversions against them. The Bulldogs will not stop a potent offense like Nevada that seems to have figured out what they couldnt get going at Notre Dame in the season opener.

And if you still dont believe me..

• Wolf Pack are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Wolf Pack are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
• Wolf Pack are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.
• Wolf Pack are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games.

LA. Tech is going on the road and will get blown out. Plain and simple.

Run, do not walk to the bookie because Nevada will cover and the Over 58.5 will fall as well!!
Plus I have a parlay which started yesterday with Nebraska riding with it as well so Go Pack!

Quick Pix for Saturday

Iowa State at Kansas (-19) – My Wagering team of the year is Kansas. They went 10-2 last year ATS and this year they are 3-1. Iowa State stinks. Kansas will roll.

TCU (-10) at Air Force – Lets see. You roll into Clemson and beat them. Why cant you do this at Air Force?  Give the points and take TCU

Kentucky at South Carolina (-9.5) – The best thing Kentucky has done this year was give the media Tim tebow talk 24/7. They have had their arse whooped at home 2 straight. South Carolina makes it 3 in a row. Give the -10 and USC

I have not added my selections for any game this year other than to provide analysis. Today I am starting my tips and trends for the rest of the 2009-10 BCS season.

Mississippi vs. South Carolina
Mississippi -4 Over 53.5

Big game tonight in the SEC. Ole Miss is ranked #4 in the country and their schedule is favorable for most of the season. This could be a very tough test for them, as Steve Spurrier is always at his best with the spotlight on him. Should be a great game tonight in Columbia.
give the points and take Mississippi -4

Michigan State vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin -3

Wisconsin is a mere 3-point favorite at home over Michigan State, and this is clearly a soft line with the Spartans coming off back-to-back losses to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. The Badgers have been dominant at home. The Badgers have won 4 of their last 5 home games vs. Michigan State. After losing to the Spartans 24-25 on the road last year, you can bet this is a big revenge spot for Wisconsin players who have not forgotten that crushing defeat. The Badgers outrushed the Spartans 281-25 in that game, which are numbers that would usually lead to a Wisconsin victory. Expect similar ground numbers in 2009, only this time around it will be enough for Wisconsin to get their payback at Camp Randall Stadium. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Badgers are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Wisconsin is quietly 3-0 and everyone is sleeping on this team. Take Wisconsin and lay the points.

UAB vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M -15

UAB (1-2) heads to Texas A&M (2-0) this Saturday for their second of back-to-back road games. Last Saturday, UAB lost 14-27 at Troy, while dropping to 2-13 S on the road under Head Coach Neil Calloway. While this is the first meeting between these two squads, UAB is a horrible 8-40 SU against BCS teams, including losing 10 straight by an average of 19 points per game. With that loss to Troy, UAB enters this Texas A&M battle on a 3-13 losing streak on the road against non-conference opponents. Texas A&M will be the toughest opponent UAB has faced up until this point in the season and we are laying the points with A&M at home, knowing that they are 4-0 SU & ATS against Conference USA opponents. A&M improves to 3-0 on the year and covers the spread, as we find them at 12-1 ATS as favorites of 27 points or less against a non-conference opponent coming off a double-digit loss. Play of the weekend Texas A&M -15

Tennessee vs. Ohio
Tennessee -21

Take the Tennessee Volunteers ATS, I do not look for a let down from this Vols team that had a chance to upset Florida last week instead I look for them to dominate this Ohio Bobcats team Saturday. The Vols defense is extremely solid with opponents averaging just 197.3 yard per game against them this season and only 16.3 ppg. The Vols have had to play a lot tougher teams than the Bobcats so far this season and yet the Bobcats numbers are not good at all offensively averaging just 103.3 rypg and just 303 total yards per game this season. The Bobcats will not be able to move the ball against this Vols defense and the Vols offense will be able to score at will so I look for Tennessee to cover by at least 4 touchdowns Saturday. The Vols are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after they have allow more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game and the Bobcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game. The Bobcats depend on moving the ball through the air but the Vols defense has only allowed 88.3 pypg this season including just 115 passing yards against #1 Florida last week. Take the Tennessee Volunteers and lay the 21