November 24, 2024

Crack Kills

I don’t know what Lou Holtz or Beano Cook is smoking, but it must be some potent stuff. We mentioned yesterday that Lou Holtz had officially lost his marbles and now it seems Beano Cook has as well. Holtz and Cook are claiming that Notre Dame will be in the BCS Championship which to me is ludicrous at best.

holtz1 Lou isn’t saying that ND will be 1 of the 2 best college football teams in the country and Lou isn’t saying that if ND played anybody this year that they could and would beat anybody. What Lou is saying is that given the 2009 ND football schedule there is very little reason to expect fewer than 11 or 12 wins for the Irish. That is, of course, highly debatable and in the end I don’t see it happening, but Sweet Lou and Beano do!

The Wonderful World of College Football Wagering

Since college football is less than 2 weeks away it is time to discuss why many of us degenerates love the game so much.

As Fred Flintstone knows it is all about “bet.bbbb..bet”. fred_flintstone

Today I am going to give you the best and worst bets over the last 3 years which include the Win-Lose (teams who have an over .500 record but can’t cover), the Win-Win (teams who win and cover) and then the Lose-Win teams who have horrible records, but always seem to bring home the bacon.

Win-Lose

The SEC – yes can you believe it? The SEC is the conference in all of college football with the most teams in this category over the last 3 years.

LSU is 31-9 SU /15-20 ATS

Bama is 25-15SU/17-20 ATS

Georgia is 30-9 SU/17-16 ATS

Auburn is 25-13 SU/15-21 ATS

The Big East (West Va 31-8 SU/16-19 ATS) and ACC (Maryland 23-16 SU/15-21 ATS & Clemson 24-15 SU/ 16-20 ATS) are also players in this category, but the leader of this group comes from the WAC. Fresno State with all its, “I’ll play anyone anywhere”, bravado is 20-18 SU and a woeful 10-27 ATS.

260px-Gambler71

WIN-WIN

“They are who we thought they were!” USC, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah, TCU, Oregon and Ohio State are all covering at a 60%+ clip.

The Sleepers are:

South Florida 26-13 SU/ 20-16 ATS

Rice 20-18 SU/ 23-14 ATS

Troy 24-14 SU/ 23-14 ATS

San Jose St. 20-17 SU/21-13 ATS

Ball St 24-15 SU/23-12 ATS

Central Michigan 26-15 SU/25-13 ATS

And my personal favorite – Kansas 26-12 SU/24-11 ATS.

One thing to remember is that Kansas, South Florida, and Central Michigan have had the same QB for 3 years and they are all coming back for 2009-10 season.

Lose-Win

This is a great category. Any of you who like to bet money lines or parlays here are the teams who either kill ya or make your weekend.

Lets start with the obvious – Duke is 5-31 SU/ 17-17 ATS and temple 10-26 SU/ 20-14 ATS. A combined 15 wins over the last 3 years but a whopping 37 covers so maybe its time to take a second look at those 38 1/2 spreads.

Buffalo 15-23 SU/23-14 ATS

Mississippi 16-21 SU/ 20-12 ATS

NC St 14-23 SU/ 17-16 ATS

And then my personal and dearly beloved team – UCLA 17-21 SU/24-13 ATS. This is the team I can not wager on due to my already intense passion for them so unfortunately I have not been able to drown my game loss sorrows with a cover.

ACC is Now a Football Conference

Surprise Team

Maryland – The ‘08 season started out with the Terps losing to Delaware, but then 2 weeks later defeating Cal. This team was a Jekyll and Hyde winning games they shouldn’t have and losing those they were supposed to win. 2009 promises big time talent due to the recruiting of Ralph Friedgen and friends. Also, Maryland is returning on offense a sophomore playmaker in receiver Torrey Smith who will be taking over for the #7 pick in the NFL Draft Darrius Heyward-Bey. Smith is not as fast, but a more complete receiver overall. Junior running back Da’Rel Scott is back and the 2nd leading ACC rusher has his sights set on back to back first team All ACC. On the defensive side of the ball the new coordinator Don Brown will scheme a ton of blitzes using linebackers Adrian Moten and Demetrius Hartsfield. Maryland’s schedule is pretty easy once they go to Cal for the opening weekend and try to stop the best running back in the nation Jhavid Best. Next comes James Madison, Middle Tennessee State, Rutgers and Clemson all at home before playing at suspect Wake Forest then home against Virginia in a payback game and then to Duke. Could it be that Maryland will be 8-0 when they visit the ACC Sleeper NC State on November 7th?
acc

Disappointing Team

Virginia Tech – Very tough schedule as usual and the loss of Orange Bowl MVP running back Darren Evans is a death blow. Evans was the only running back that had any real game experience so they will have to lean on their defense even more than usual.

Game of the Year

Virginia Tech vs. Alabama in Atlanta. The Chick-fil-A College Kickoff opener isn’t just about Virginia Tech getting off to a good start to their season. The reputation of the ACC to an extent is involved with the outcome of this game. If Virginia Tech could somehow pull off the upset then the ACC would have a top five team and a nice win over a very good SEC team. The ACC can’t afford to have another embarrassing loss like Clemson suffered in this same game last year against Alabama or the blowout Georgia Tech suffered to LSU in the Peach Bowl.

Wagering history

Maryland is 7-4 SU but 1-7 ATS first month of the season last 3 seasons
V Tech last 3 seasons 9-1 SU & ATS on the road against non conf
Miami is on an 11-3 SU & 10-2 ATS run on road when total is 45-49
NC St is on an 11-3 ATS run vs. winning teams

Prediction

Don’t give the BCS berth just yet to Virginia Tech even though most of the media are predicting them to win. Georgia Tech and their wishbone offense is will be much better this year and coach Paul Johnson is a winner. Miami and Florida State are definitely not back to their former powerhouse programs and even though UNC is on the rise they aren’t a top 25 team in the end. So who will win the ACC this year? I am going with NC State and this isn’t a biased selection. That’s right, eight home games and two early tough non-conference foes in South Carolina and Pitt will prepare the Pack for ACC play. The Pack only have four away games and they don’t even start until October 3rd when they drive ninety miles to face a weak Wake Forest team and then back home against Duke. NC State can potentially be 6-0 when they travel to play BC with a new coach and system before they get a week off before heading to Florida St. They do have to play at Virginia Tech in late November which will be very tough to win, but in the end they will make the Championship game.

Russell Wilson an All ACC quarterback is back with another year under his belt and a slew of returning players on both sides so I can see 9-3 record and an ACC BCS crown!

Is the Big East Underrated?

The Big East went through a tough season last year to say the least, but let’s not forget this conference won consecutive BCS games the three previous years. The glaring issue right now is West Virginia isn’t the annual national title contender they were for so many years under Rich Rodriguez and no other Big East team seems ready to step up. That being said, almost every team in the conference this year truly feels they have a chance to win the Big East and cash in on the large BCS payout.

Cincinnati would love to repeat as champions, but they lost a crippling 10 defensive starters from last year’s Orange Bowl team. Quarterback Tony Pike leads a high profile offense under head coach Brian Kelly, but I’m not so sure they can recover from their defensive issues. Rutgers has had great success under coach Schiano in recent years even if they haven’t made the most impressive bowl games. Rutgers has a workable schedule with Pittsburgh, South Florida and West Virginia coming to town so keep an eye on the Scarlet Knights.

South Florida has made big strides in recent years and in 2009 might be the year they put it all together. Star quarterback Matt Grothe is in his senior year and the defense is quite talented as usual. UConn under Randy Edsall continues to focus on getting the best quality of player they can sign and then coach them up to a whole new level. Four players were drafted on the first of the NFL Draft last year which is very impressive for a school that just a few years ago stunk up the football field. Connecticut will still be solid on the defensive side of the ball and you can rest assured they will continue to focus on the rushing game.

Pittsburgh has been picked by many to win the Big East this year based on a fantastic defense along with a good special teams. The big question is how do the Panthers recover from the loss of RB LeSean McCoy in order to generate some semblance of an offense. If they can score a reasonable amount of points then they can win the Big East.

Syracuse and Louisville are the two teams who aren’t in contention this year. There isn’t really much more to say about either team other than the fact Syracuse has former Duke basketball point guard vying for the starting position at quarterback.

Below is a short list of players to keep your eyes on this year in the Big East

LB Reed Williams, Sr. West Virginia
DE George Selvie, Sr. South Florida
WR Mardy Gilyard, Sr. Cincinnati
DE Greg Romeus, Jr. Pittsburgh
QB Matt Grothe, Sr. South Florida
DT Arthur Jones, Sr. Syracuse
RB Noel Devine, Jr. West Virginia
LB Scott Lutrus, Jr. Connecticut
RB Victor Anderson, Soph. Louisville
LB Ryan D’Imperio, Sr. Rutgers

Suprise Team

South Florida – The Bulls have become a more prominent team in recent years, but this could be the one when they get over the hump. A lot of the pressure will ride on the arm and legs of Matt Grothe because you can count on their defense being solid.

Disappointing Team

West Virginia – Mr. Everything quarterback Pat White is long gone and coach Bill Stewart pales in comparison to former head coach Rich Rodriguez. Take these two factors in conjunction with an offensive line overhaul and you have a recipe for disaster.

Game of the Year

South Florida at Pittsburgh. This year is really wide open in the Big East, but this game could be the deciding factor in who wins the conference crown. Look for this game to be a defensive brawl and don’t forget the 26-21 victory Pittsburgh pulled out last year in South Florida

Beano Cook Means College Football is Back!

The first college football games are now just 24 days, 5 hours, 49 minutes away so you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know that Beano Cook has awaken from his 8 month slumber.

No he hasn’t already called a Notre Dame player to win the Heisman Trophy nor has he picked Penn State or Pitt to win the BCS Championship, but what he has done is get out of bed (or coffin) so now the whole world is back on track.

Just the fact you can here his voice and then Beano provides a few quips and that can only mean it’s close to the best time of the year and the yearning for football is coming to a peak.

If this doesn’t get you going then remember these immortal words of Beano Cook to get your football jones kicking.

“You only have to bat a thousand at two things; flying and heart transplants. Everything else you can go 4 for 5”

24 days, 5 hours, 45 minutes till kick off….

WAC on WAC off

The WAC currently isn’t getting the respect and press the Mountain West Conference is receiving and it’s not even as impressive as Conference USA these days so things are a bit bleak overall. Boise State, Fresno State and Nevada have been solid teams, but then the talent drops off considerably with the bottom half of this league. The first week of the 2009 season will be a big indicator on whether the WAC can garner some more respect for the conference or if they will continue to be the step-brother to the MWC.

On the opening night of college football season the Boise State Broncos host #10 Oregon on the now infamous blue field in Boise, Idaho. Then on Saturday September 5th Nevada goes to Notre Dame, Louisiana Tech goes to Auburn and San Jose State has to face USC at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. This in addition to Fresno State’s ‘take on all comers’ attitude with games at Wisconsin and at Cincinnati early in the season and then they wrap up their season at Illinois.

Boise

The basement dwellers of the WAC have made some coaching changes, and they’ve come up with some nice upgrades overall. Dewayne Walker was very close to becoming UCLA’s head coach, but instead he is now focused on making New Mexico State an actual contender. Also, Gary Andersen is a solid coaching prospect who should do a good job at Utah State, but it’s going to take some time to get things rolling in Logan, Utah. Don’t expect much from these squads this year, but there is hope building for these programs which is good to see.

Idaho continues to languish and Hawaii is going to actually struggle this year with a very tough schedule, but the league should do well overall this year because the middle of the pack will be improved. Louisiana Tech is close to hitting their stride under head coach Derek Dooley, Nevada has one of the best running attacks in the nation and Pat Hill has something to prove this year with his Fresno State Bulldogs. San Jose State continues to improve and should have one of their best seasons in many years if things go as expected with their talent. Boise State is going to be the juggernaut again this year, but it’s hard to lay claim to a BCS bid if you continue to rip through a conference schedule full of so many free tickets.

Below is a short list of players to keep your eyes on this year in the Western Athletic Conference.

QB Colin Kaepernick, Jr., Nevada
RB Ryan Mathews, Jr., Fresno State
QB Kellen Moore, Soph., Boise State
WR/KR Phillip Livas, Jr., Louisiana Tech
DE Kevin Basped, Jr., Nevada
FS Antonio Baker, Sr., Louisiana Tech
RB Vai Taua, Jr., Nevada
WR Seyi Ajirotutu, Sr., Fresno State
DB Davon House, Sr., NMSU
DB Shiloh Keo, Jr., Idaho

Surprise Team

San Jose State – The Spartans are loaded with receivers so the offense should be in good shape. The front defensive seven are excellent and San Jose is stocked with good athletes across the board. San Jose has to go to Boise, Louisiana Tech and Frenso so a title is probably out of the question, but they aren’t going to go down without a fight.

Disappointing Team

Hawaii – The Warriors have been in love with their home field advantage for years now because it continues to allow them enough wins to go bowling, but this year things could change. The passing game for the Warriors will not be as explosive overall and the defense has no real stand-out areas. Look for Hawaii to struggle all year long.

Game of the Year

On November 27th the Nevada Wolfpack roll into Boise to take on the Broncos. Don’t forget last year the Wolf Pack were getting drubbed in the first half at home before roaring back in the second half, but coming up short in the end with a 34-41 loss. This year’s game has the possibility of being even better and it will go a long way to determining who will be the WAC champion this year.

Aint No Mountain West High Enough

Let me get this straight. At the end of the last college bowl season we had a Mountain West team playing in the Sugar Bowl against an SEC legend in Alabama. Could I have been dreaming? Oh, and by the way Utah won 31-17 to end the season undefeated.

Like My Cousin Vinnie once said, the 2 Utes look very good and could become the first team ever to go undefeated in back to back years, but of course they still would not play for a National Championship. There will be early bumps on their road to possible destiny since they travel to Oregon this year on the 19th of September and then Louisville comes to town the very next week.

utes

BYU senior quarterback Max Hall was named Preseason MWC Offensive Player of the Year, while TCU senior defensive end Jerry Hughes was selected Defensive Player of the Year.
Horned Frogs junior kick returner Jeremy Kerley was chosen Special Teams Player of the Year and TCU running back Ed Wesley was tabbed as Freshman of the Year for the preseason.

Hall, a first-team all Mountain West Conference honoree in 2008, after passing for league-highs of 3,957 yards and 35 touchdowns last fall. Hall led the Mountain West in these two categories for an impressive second year. Hall’s passing and overall total yardage slightly above 4,000 yards broke conference records and ranked him in the top 10 nationally. Jerry Hughes was a consensus All-American last year plus the MWC Defensive Player of the Year and a first-team all-MWC selection. Hughes tied for the lead nationally with six forced fumbles and led the nation with 15 sacks which set a MWC record.

Below is a short list of players to keep your eyes on this year in the Mountain West Conference.

DE Jerry Hughes, Sr. TCU
QB Max Hall, Sr. BYU
WR Dion Morton, Sr. Colorado State
RB Harvey Unga, Jr. BYU
TE Dennis Pitta, Sr. BYU
RB Matt Asiata, Sr. Utah
LB Daryl Washington, Sr. TCU
WR Ryan Wolfe, Sr. UNLV
DT John Fletcher, Sr. Wyoming
DB Chris Thomas, Sr. Air Force
DL Koa Misi, Sr. Utah
DB Rafael Priest, Sr. TCU

Surprise Team

TCU – My Sleeper is TCU to win the very tough Mountain West Conference. If the Horned Frogs can get wins at Virginia in the season opener and then two weeks later at Clemson things will get off in nice fashion. They have a real tough game at BYU in October, but after a win the Frogs will not only win the Mountain West Conference they will go unbeaten because they beat Utah at home in November.

Disappointing Team

Utah – The Utes will still be playing a high level, but they have road games at BYU, TCU, Colorado State, Oregon and San Jose State and even Utah can’t survive such a brutal schedule.

Game of the Year

TCU at BYU in late October will be the game that decides who wins the Mountain West Conference title.

Next week. WAC and Big East

D2B Going Back To School

Starting tomorrow I will be taking on all the BCS eligible conferences and breaking down the top and bottom teams plus giving you my take on the sleepers as well as the best and worst against the spread.

Friday August 7th – Mountain West Conference

2009-2010 Top 20 College Party Poll

Princeton Review’s top 20 college party schools shows too much fun is going on at Penn State University with Florida coming in second place.  A lot of the normal staples of this list such as Georgia, Texas, Colorado, Ohio and Arizona State are included again, but the big shocker is UCSB is not part of the top 5. East Carolina also got dissed to say the least because they weren’t even included on the list.

college kid

1. Penn State University, State College, Pa.
2. University of Florida, Gainesville, Fla.
3. University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss.
4. University of Georgia, Athens, Ga.
5. Ohio University, Athens, Ohio
6. West Virginia University, Morgantown, W.Va.
7. University of Texas, Austin, Texas
8. University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wis.
9. Florida State University, Tallahassee, Fla.
10. University of California-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, Calif.
11. University of Colorado, Boulder, Colo.
12. University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa
13. Union College, Schenectady, N.Y.
14. Indiana University, Bloomington, Ind.
15. DePauw University, Greencastle, Ind.
16. University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tenn.
17. Sewanee: The University of the South, Sewanee, Tenn.
18. University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, N.D.
19. Tulane University, New Orleans, La.
20. Arizona State University, Tempe, Ariz.

So Long… Fairwell….

You better have some longshots in your Majors pools cuz Tiger Woods has missed the cut in a major for only the second time in his professional career.

Woods made two double bogeys on the way to a 4-over 74 today so he won’t be playing this weekend at the British Open after missing the cut by one stroke.

Woods tried to rally, making birdies on two of the last three holes, but a chip from the back of the green at No. 18 came up short and he settled for par.

I am sure many of you have Tom Watson, Kenichi Kuboya, Brandon Grace and Anthony Wall on your teams so all should be well with your pool selections.